NHL · resolved market
Blue Jackets vs. Stars: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbfa7c2630a7a110201c95f3fc13ec33727284bd709e28dd6f86d2d3f4f6d91d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Over | 48c | 5,459$2,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,632.04 | 315 | 46.3%146 W · 169 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 49c | 2,133$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.25 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 51c | 1,881$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.6 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 1,030$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.26 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…3a70backed Over | 48c | 660$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…72cfbacked Under | 52c | 660$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…2370backed Over | 48c | 630$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…92b2backed Under | 52c | 630$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 53c | 605$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.35 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 51c | 584.84$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.89 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 52c | 361.75$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.16 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 47c | 198.26$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.18 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 52c | 132$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaba…819cbacked Under | 53c | 132$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +142.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21e5…2f5bbacked Over | 49c | 127.24$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…9433backed Over | 49c | 105.69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4689…c1b3backed Under | 53c | 100.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Under | 53c | 57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 178 | 45.5%81 W · 97 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…68eebacked Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55f7…23a3backed Under | 52c | 20.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blue Jackets vs. Stars: O/U 6.5this page
- Blue Jackets vs. StarsBlue Jackets won
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Blue Jackets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.