Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc29043a658aa1f2c3ace76afbcd5975eb784517845d46e56cb82f6d910400ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 3c | 442.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 185.33$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf47…9eb9backed Yes | 48c | 146.69$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.13 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 128.7$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 45c | 89.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 55c | 83.69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 62c | 64.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 51c | 62.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 51c | 61.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 57.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 43c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf89…326dbacked Yes | 55c | 50.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 50.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 52c | 48.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 50c | 43.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 51c | 39.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed No | 65c | 38.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 51c | 37.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 54c | 37.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 61c | 32.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 32.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0d06backed No | 54c | 29.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 26.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5296…39cdbacked No | 50c | 25.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…a65bbacked Yes | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d88…3d2abacked No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 42c | 24.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9659…6acfbacked No | 50c | 24.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1f…cfcdbacked Yes | 55c | 23.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe55…516ebacked Yes | 51c | 23.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 66c | 19.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d2…bc8ebacked Yes | 54c | 18.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.