Asian League · resolved market
Will FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc32387160c65b194fea3f9d2e3eb62881759a2a7f6c6487cab1d40940c2f4dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 34c | 10,687$3,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,684.89 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 68c | 3,359$2,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.2 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 55c | 1,636$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.43 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Yes | 72c | 806.59$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.4 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 77c | 758.47$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.35 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Yes | 71c | 735.83$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.84 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Yes | 71c | 707.22$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.23 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Yes | 71c | 706.62$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.62 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 44c | 695.01$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.16 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 36c | 674.84$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.5 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 46c | 595.81$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.36 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…a948backed No | 32c | 449.88$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.14 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Yes | 71c | 354.38$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.38 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Yes | 30c | 336.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.07 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -9.6wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e19…caabbacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Yes | 31c | 303.23$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.23 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed No | 11c | 291$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Yes | 67c | 290.31$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.1 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Yes | 70c | 285.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.02 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Yes | 70c | 285.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.02 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 71c | 196.69$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.65 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 43c | 193$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.4 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Yes | 70c | 143.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Yes | 70c | 143.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Yes | 52c | 110.84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…860fbacked No | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 69c | 98.28$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed Yes | 52c | 88.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +5.8wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 61c | 85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 17c | 71.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed No | 33c | 68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 39c | 64.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 30c | 55.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 53c | 38.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 46cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe129…fef1backed Yes | 29c | 37.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Yes | 70c | 35.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fc…6c2dbacked Yes | 56c | 35.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ad…d3fbbacked Yes | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Yes | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba2…f46bbacked Yes | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…f5dcbacked No | 57c | 33.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fad…a528backed No | 71c | 32.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Yes | 52c | 31.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefad…9c1bbacked Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x806b…cccabacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8799backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-04-05?No won
- Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-04-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.