NHL · resolved market
NHL: Kraken vs. Blues
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc4b97df8d7950e9b5e6fb25bc18c16573d749c1fadd1c7adfbc212c47577b29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bluesof Kraken, Blues
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Blues | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Kraken | 54c | 1,782$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.2 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Kraken | 45c | 1,368$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.89 | 313 | 34.8%109 W · 204 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Kraken | 59c | 999.99$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.99 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Blues | 41c | 975.6$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Blues | 40c | 908.03$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.98 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Kraken | 72c | 285.39$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.45 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…8dffbacked Blues | 44c | 213$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b6…c5ecbacked Kraken | 56c | 213$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…ea13backed Kraken | 62c | 153.19$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Blues | 46c | 152.55$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Blues | 41c | 121.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Kraken | 59c | 96.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a2…4ff7backed Kraken | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…84fbbacked Kraken | 61c | 49.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Kraken | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Kraken | 58c | 23.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Kraken | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.