MLB · resolved market
Astros vs. Brewers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc8d9d3148413ae3f87e8a263710bbcc253b31df2b9be4749cb2ac699cc4e376
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brewersof Astros, Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa221…77f5backed Astros | 50c | 3,294$1,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,653 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…def3backed Brewers | 50c | 1,896$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.83 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Astros | 49c | 1,121$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.29 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Brewers | 49c | 1,102$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.97 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Brewers | 51c | 1,017$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.33 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Astros | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Brewers | 50c | 994.59$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.3 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Astros | 48c | 806.55$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.14 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Brewers | 50c | 650$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Astros | 15c | 375.55$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Astros | 46c | 363.25$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.51 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Astros | 6c | 222$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 248 | 8.9%22 W · 226 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Astros | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Astros | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Brewers | 51c | 152.43$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.69 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…3723backed Brewers | 59c | 136.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.03 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Astros | 48c | 134.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Astros | 20c | 124.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…e15cbacked Brewers | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Astros | 48c | 115.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Astros | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Astros | 50c | 103.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Brewers | 51c | 98.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Brewers | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Brewers | 52c | 49.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Brewers | 51c | 43.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Astros | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Astros | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Astros | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Astros | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.