Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: alohasquad vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc8eb2cdc05b985b006195960589d03fc13ca521e6fb414070b08b7a759eb120
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VP.Prodigyof alohasquad, VP.Prodigy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed VP.Prodigy | 56c | 2,375$1,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.81 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed alohasquad | 40c | 2,057$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.17 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed alohasquad | 24c | 1,663$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.11 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed alohasquad | 2c | 1,555$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed VP.Prodigy | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ff…a353backed VP.Prodigy | 62c | 274.04$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.11 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -6.4wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked VP.Prodigy | 61c | 236.65$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.29 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed alohasquad | 39c | 145.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed alohasquad | 48c | 97.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed VP.Prodigy | 52c | 97.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked alohasquad | 80c | 88.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.76 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked alohasquad | 51c | 82.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe89c…0220backed alohasquad | 57c | 42.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…2b66backed VP.Prodigy | 60c | 40.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked alohasquad | 39c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked alohasquad | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d85…c05bbacked VP.Prodigy | 78c | 21.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: alohasquad vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: alohasquad vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Group AVP.Prodigy won
- Dota 2: alohasquad vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.