Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: alohasquad vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba01cc12d8f3176b8e4d9863a686994ee04e153f8d46cceb41b7a6c9b7da7079
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VP.Prodigyof alohasquad, VP.Prodigy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed alohasquad | 50c | 3,185$1,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,604.35 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed alohasquad | 44c | 2,132$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.2 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc57…f5f4backed VP.Prodigy | 70c | 2,060$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.81 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed VP.Prodigy | 56c | 1,669$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.45 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed VP.Prodigy | 58c | 1,657$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.3 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed VP.Prodigy | 56c | 1,646$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.77 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked alohasquad | 30c | 1,497$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.4 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8db…54e8backed VP.Prodigy | 66c | 530.3$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c0…e618backed alohasquad | 51c | 376.73$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.13 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed VP.Prodigy | 60c | 349.03$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.66 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…0958backed VP.Prodigy | 49c | 336.73$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.73 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xded3…b470backed VP.Prodigy | 64c | 243.73$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed alohasquad | 45c | 199.76$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.53 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed VP.Prodigy | 58c | 188.42$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.28 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20e8…a4a1backed VP.Prodigy | 68c | 160$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed VP.Prodigy | 71c | 159.66$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 52 | 80.8%42 W · 10 L | +8.6wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed alohasquad | 30c | 156.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked VP.Prodigy | 58c | 155.18$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.86 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b9…0a9bbacked alohasquad | 51c | 113.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…c7b2backed VP.Prodigy | 69c | 105$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 156 | 50.6%79 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed alohasquad | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed VP.Prodigy | 53c | 98.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed VP.Prodigy | 57c | 85.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 410 | 50.2%206 W · 204 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed VP.Prodigy | 55c | 77.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed alohasquad | 46c | 75.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12df…32fcbacked VP.Prodigy | 61c | 75.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3568…c765backed VP.Prodigy | 72c | 72.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…dbfdbacked VP.Prodigy | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75b…b4f5backed VP.Prodigy | 73c | 68.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed VP.Prodigy | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x624e…a482backed VP.Prodigy | 73c | 54.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked VP.Prodigy | 61c | 49.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed VP.Prodigy | 74c | 47.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked VP.Prodigy | 53c | 42.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed alohasquad | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b2…41f8backed VP.Prodigy | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed alohasquad | 40c | 37.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa399…4dcebacked VP.Prodigy | 59c | 33.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed alohasquad | 44c | 30.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d8…2374backed VP.Prodigy | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8668…cbc7backed VP.Prodigy | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed VP.Prodigy | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 122 | 29.5%36 W · 86 L | -18.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xacf3…7513backed VP.Prodigy | 66c | 29.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…af66backed VP.Prodigy | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd785…dae0backed alohasquad | 46c | 24.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked VP.Prodigy | 56c | 20.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc3…75f6backed VP.Prodigy | 75c | 20.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3c…e6cabacked VP.Prodigy | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed VP.Prodigy | 56c | 19.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea49…434fbacked VP.Prodigy | 66c | 15.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: alohasquad vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Group Athis page
- Dota 2: alohasquad vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
- Dota 2: alohasquad vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.