Tennis · resolved market
Lexington: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccb7085c1d62848b14eb99534f8480bd1693668ea7c4bd3fa522b58d050881b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Andres Martinof Nicolas Arseneault, Andres Martin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x772b…1840backed Nicolas Arseneault | 3c | 7,266$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.3 | 91 | 36.3%33 W · 58 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Nicolas Arseneault | 18c | 4,386$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.6 | 1,365 | 43.3%591 W · 774 L | -26.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a2…704cbacked Nicolas Arseneault | 9c | 2,222$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 144 | 18.1%26 W · 118 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Nicolas Arseneault | 27c | 1,360$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.2 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Andres Martin | 73c | 1,315$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.05 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Nicolas Arseneault | 8c | 618.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nicolas Arseneault | 5c | 523.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Andres Martin | 77c | 309.12$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.59 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…1ddabacked Nicolas Arseneault | 22c | 279.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 635 | 37.6%239 W · 396 L | +20.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbb…dab4backed Nicolas Arseneault | 8c | 269.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Nicolas Arseneault | 27c | 258.58$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Nicolas Arseneault | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 271 | 39.1%106 W · 165 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…c70bbacked Nicolas Arseneault | 10c | 227.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 269 | 55%148 W · 121 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed Andres Martin | 72c | 210.14$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.14 | 401 | 61.1%245 W · 156 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Nicolas Arseneault | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 203 | 36.5%74 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Andres Martin | 74c | 141.11$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Nicolas Arseneault | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 414 | 40.3%167 W · 247 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…55f8backed Nicolas Arseneault | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x571f…1d37backed Andres Martin | 77c | 85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 1,065 | 54.7%583 W · 482 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Andres Martin | 74c | 67.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…ef05backed Andres Martin | 74c | 49.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 372 | 62.9%234 W · 138 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Nicolas Arseneault | 25c | 47.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 1,042 | 36.5%380 W · 662 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Andres Martin | 70c | 42.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 300 | 55%165 W · 135 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Andres Martin | 73c | 37.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,658 | 49.9%828 W · 830 L | +7.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Andres Martin | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 967 | 55.3%535 W · 432 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x097c…630abacked Andres Martin | 74c | 24.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | -12.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ef…dddabacked Andres Martin | 73c | 23.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Andres Martin | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2262…21a1backed Andres Martin | 77c | 16.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 763 | 55.6%424 W · 339 L | +29.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Andres Martin | 74c | 15.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 1,021 | 57.8%590 W · 431 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lexington: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martinthis page
- Set Handicap: Martin (-1.5) vs Arseneault (+1.5)Martin won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.