Tennis · resolved market
ITF Champaign: William Jansen vs Naoya Honda
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccc6b511452899287f60dbfa21970071c5bda04f71204d68064e2d8b58c2b0dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Naoya Hondaof William Jansen, Naoya Honda
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Naoya Honda | 79c | 4,516$3,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.34 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca4e…f97ebacked William Jansen | 20c | 2,816$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Naoya Honda | 68c | 2,210$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.82 | 365 | 48.2%176 W · 189 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…2f1ebacked William Jansen | 24c | 2,022$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.06 | 1,111 | 45.3%503 W · 608 L | -35.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed William Jansen | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.98 | 377 | 38.2%144 W · 233 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Naoya Honda | 70c | 707.14$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.14 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Naoya Honda | 68c | 607.49$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.13 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed William Jansen | 27c | 422.22$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Naoya Honda | 61c | 317.21$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.17 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked William Jansen | 20c | 164.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…3250backed Naoya Honda | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…80c7backed William Jansen | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2f…9123backed Naoya Honda | 70c | 142.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 316 | 56.3%178 W · 138 L | +19.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Naoya Honda | 71c | 136.55$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed William Jansen | 24c | 112.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked William Jansen | 21c | 109.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked William Jansen | 24c | 108.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked William Jansen | 20c | 107.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 490 | 56.9%279 W · 211 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed William Jansen | 20c | 103.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…3174backed William Jansen | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 394 | 51.8%204 W · 190 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked William Jansen | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2066…7841backed Naoya Honda | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked William Jansen | 24c | 95.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed William Jansen | 24c | 91.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked William Jansen | 49c | 88.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked William Jansen | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed William Jansen | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 563 | 37.3%210 W · 353 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Naoya Honda | 70c | 61.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed William Jansen | 20c | 58.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked William Jansen | 20c | 51.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked William Jansen | 27c | 40.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 509 | 46.6%237 W · 272 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…d7b5backed William Jansen | 54c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 525 | 52.4%275 W · 250 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Naoya Honda | 69c | 26.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 455 | 66.4%302 W · 153 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…ab1cbacked Naoya Honda | 72c | 25.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Naoya Honda | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked William Jansen | 56c | 24.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 896 | 63.7%571 W · 325 L | +63.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed William Jansen | 64c | 20.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 502 | 68.3%343 W · 159 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7d…ae38backed Naoya Honda | 70c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…5e60backed Naoya Honda | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 74 | 75.7%56 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.