South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Paranaense vs. Santos FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd09a4cef27e7b563c63a2befb729622d645690f2341bc87fb3fb260dcb475d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed Under | 29c | 2,466$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.36 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…9661backed Over | 71c | 705.48$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.59 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 71c | 352.11$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.11 | 166 | 56%93 W · 73 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9f…5a30backed Over | 71c | 231.46$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.12 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 29c | 181.85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 71c | 175.47$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…bc9bbacked Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 71c | 135$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 71c | 119$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 71c | 115$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 27c | 94.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…08bcbacked Under | 16c | 91.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Over | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…0d72backed Under | 30c | 86.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 76.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Over | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…4167backed Over | 72c | 47.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…856cbacked Over | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…58b0backed Over | 71c | 36.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede1…8ad7backed Under | 31c | 35.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Over | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 72c | 26.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Over | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd027…8b66backed Over | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Over | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 73c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 71c | 23.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b9…8714backed Over | 72c | 14.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Paranaense vs. Santos FC: O/U 1.5this page
- CA Paranaense vs. Santos FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Paranaense vs. Santos FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Paranaense vs. Santos FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Paranaense vs. Santos FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.