South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Paranaense vs. Santos FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfc49e30c00172b7aa742a782eb4b3b48c6ce16a41b5dca8da86a1298b4f1f79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 54c | 8,793$4,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,044.78 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 8,098$3,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,606.76 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc8…d9bebacked Under | 4c | 1,246$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a4…00e1backed Under | 56c | 1,067$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Over | 46c | 970.46$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.96 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…8cb5backed Under | 15c | 734.11$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 41c | 662.13$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.62 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Under | 51c | 614.8$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Under | 35c | 571.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 45c | 555.56$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.56 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b8…99f3backed Under | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f64…452abacked Over | 27c | 459.03$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +271.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e8…2cecbacked Under | 6c | 299.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 57c | 223.55$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.42 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 65c | 184.34$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.34 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 70c | 178.05$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 55c | 159.88$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.34 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 69c | 155.27$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.34 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Over | 31c | 144.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 55c | 135$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc55d…9d2dbacked Under | 57c | 134.45$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 20c | 131.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…a2d6backed Over | 80c | 125.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 23c | 122.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf343…fba6backed Over | 49c | 106.12$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Under | 28c | 96.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 35c | 86.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 199 | 63.8%127 W · 72 L | +19.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 55c | 78.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 69c | 72.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 50c | 66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7700…2d07backed Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Under | 54c | 59.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb56…efa6backed Under | 57c | 56.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…04d0backed Over | 77c | 55.48$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcc…04a2backed Under | 55c | 52.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…c202backed Over | 45c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60f…742dbacked Under | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 50c | 42.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 42c | 42.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Under | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Under | 56c | 30.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 46c | 26.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Under | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Under | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Over | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf55…92a2backed Over | 70c | 19.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 67cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…3cecbacked Under | 67c | 16.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Over | 75c | 14.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Paranaense vs. Santos FC: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Paranaense vs. Santos FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Paranaense vs. Santos FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Paranaense vs. Santos FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Paranaense vs. Santos FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.