Tennis · resolved market
ITF Poprad: Sebastian Sec vs John Hallquist Lithen
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd25088759393a12683e9dd1e1f09229fe9d2bbc32db26f9bd4797e4903bd128
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- John Hallquist Lithenof Sebastian Sec, John Hallquist Lithen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Sebastian Sec | 2c | 5,180$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.61 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sebastian Sec | 28c | 1,533$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.45 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked John Hallquist Lithen | 68c | 999.99$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.01 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked John Hallquist Lithen | 50c | 280$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Sebastian Sec | 8c | 266.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b45…ba8bbacked Sebastian Sec | 15c | 110$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Sebastian Sec | 28c | 99.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked John Hallquist Lithen | 73c | 53.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e8…c60ebacked John Hallquist Lithen | 59c | 52.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 374 | 60.4%226 W · 148 L | +29.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb2…ee14backed Sebastian Sec | 35c | 49.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked John Hallquist Lithen | 72c | 45.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked John Hallquist Lithen | 71c | 40.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 213 | 51.6%110 W · 103 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked John Hallquist Lithen | 73c | 34.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed John Hallquist Lithen | 78c | 33.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 455 | 66.4%302 W · 153 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac50…d728backed John Hallquist Lithen | 58c | 26.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 283 | 43.8%124 W · 159 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked John Hallquist Lithen | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 240 | 52.5%126 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.