Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd3e45a1036af92e3516d799e8a9d3c84eb436a383a8b785c0fdf744bd978e12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 78c | 369.85$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 15c | 270.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…12b4backed Yes | 5c | 268.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.58 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.1wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ce…90a5backed Yes | 76c | 263.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.02 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5398…ceb0backed Yes | 5c | 226.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.6 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +10.6wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 13c | 203.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 13c | 177.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 30c | 169.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.23 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 153.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 75c | 121.08$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 9c | 108$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 74c | 99.9$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 80c | 71.51$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed No | 20c | 58.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 21c | 56.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 22c | 51.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 70c | 42.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 27.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 60c | 23.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 55c | 22.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 64c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.