La Liga · resolved market
AD Ceuta FC vs. Real Racing Club: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd7a449caa66aa5e7d41bb47a46eacf6e8a1a157d9ef0b647a88fa4a93f650ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 3,299$2,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.69 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Over | 36c | 3,100$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.98 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 40c | 373.64$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.56 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 38c | 354.82$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.32 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 16c | 347.61$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.61 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 68c | 263.8$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 239 | 57.7%138 W · 101 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 74c | 210.34$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 52c | 185.15$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 192 | 58.9%113 W · 79 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8514…cbb0backed Over | 51c | 152.69$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 51c | 148.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.74 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 73c | 147.57$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.73 | 627 | 44.3%278 W · 349 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 74c | 133.34$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 331 | 61.3%203 W · 128 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc3…0b17backed Over | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Over | 24c | 99.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 74c | 66.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 195 | 55.9%109 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 20c | 63.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…d6f5backed Over | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 80c | 37.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 40c | 27.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…0f52backed Over | 60c | 24.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed Under | 73c | 24.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 137 | 60.6%83 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 62c | 19.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 261 | 54.4%142 W · 119 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 62c | 19.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 357 | 59.4%212 W · 145 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d3…aafbbacked Under | 70c | 16.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Real Racing Club: O/U 1.5this page
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Real Racing Club: O/U 2.5Under won
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Real Racing Club: O/U 3.5Under won
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Real Racing Club: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Real Racing Club (-1.5)AD Ceuta FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.