Valorant · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdafc1a029bf2d0bfcac16b432e686a79bd6c3291a4bbe0656caa6f221023ab5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed Over | 49c | 549.94$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.47 | 208 | 40.9%85 W · 123 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 51c | 110.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…9d16backed Under | 51c | 99.24$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f01dbacked Under | 51c | 88.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 235 | 48.5%114 W · 121 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 49c | 56.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 129 | 48.1%62 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 49c | 49.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 339 | 42.2%143 W · 196 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 48c | 46.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbee3…ac5bbacked Over | 51c | 37.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3d…a77bbacked Over | 50c | 26.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…3c55backed Under | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…eabbbacked Under | 70c | 19.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5)Team Liquid won
- Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group AlphaTeam Liquid won
- Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Team Liquid - Map 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Team Liquid - Map 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.