CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: pugdesonesto vs ALKA - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdf445e87a9ca4e64723e533f08e5c12028f894901806ce9082734dba8ff6c6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ALKAof pugdesonesto, ALKA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0063…2dd2backed pugdesonesto | 30c | 894.02$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.74 | 402 | 64.7%260 W · 142 L | +49.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked ALKA | 64c | 545.71$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.82 | 1,779 | 59.1%1,052 W · 727 L | +104.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked ALKA | 68c | 500$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked pugdesonesto | 43c | 497.52$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.96 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked pugdesonesto | 32c | 378.92$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.29 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked ALKA | 49c | 336.31$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.72 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked ALKA | 43c | 291.69$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.39 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked pugdesonesto | 58c | 290.9$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.28 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed pugdesonesto | 60c | 279.6$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.54 | 1,033 | 53.2%550 W · 483 L | +64.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked ALKA | 39c | 253.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.55 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…bd8ebacked pugdesonesto | 13c | 191.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -15.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked ALKA | 62c | 183.58$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed pugdesonesto | 44c | 155$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 1,083 | 42.1%456 W · 627 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked pugdesonesto | 50c | 154.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked pugdesonesto | 42c | 129.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 752 | 45.3%341 W · 411 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed pugdesonesto | 75c | 126.79$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 694 | 45%312 W · 382 L | -24.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked pugdesonesto | 29c | 110.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed ALKA | 43c | 107$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed pugdesonesto | 38c | 98.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 1,547 | 33.9%524 W · 1,023 L | -73.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked ALKA | 37c | 65.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 1,630 | 43.2%704 W · 926 L | -32.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed pugdesonesto | 28c | 62.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked ALKA | 35c | 61.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 162 | 50%81 W · 81 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf19…8869backed pugdesonesto | 21c | 60.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked pugdesonesto | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5439…c45bbacked pugdesonesto | 77c | 57.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed pugdesonesto | 21c | 54.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed pugdesonesto | 52c | 40.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed pugdesonesto | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 47cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…e2eabacked pugdesonesto | 65c | 30.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf5…1095backed pugdesonesto | 55c | 30.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked pugdesonesto | 64c | 30.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 154 | 69.5%107 W · 47 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked pugdesonesto | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -15.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed ALKA | 45c | 22.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 235 | 26.4%62 W · 173 L | -15.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x223d…ba20backed ALKA | 68c | 17.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked ALKA | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 397 | 72.5%288 W · 109 L | +38.5wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: pugdesonesto vs ALKA - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: pugdesonesto vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Challengers #2 PlayoffsALKA won
- Counter-Strike: pugdesonesto vs ALKA - Map 2 WinnerALKA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.