Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce0983320d849fe76a9eaf21a6d1942ff241fb0db1a64d18837bf8402777a87a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Army Black Knightsof UMBC Retrievers, Army Black Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd696…8a49backed UMBC Retrievers | 56c | 1,180$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.95 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Army Black Knights | 44c | 828.04$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.72 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Army Black Knights | 44c | 303$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.68 | 401 | 47.6%191 W · 210 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Army Black Knights | 45c | 71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Army Black Knights | 45c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Army Black Knights | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Army Black Knights | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe91…4462backed UMBC Retrievers | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed UMBC Retrievers | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -6.2wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1a…ad50backed UMBC Retrievers | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Army Black Knights | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…bcb1backed UMBC Retrievers | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888b…8f3fbacked UMBC Retrievers | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-6.5)this page
- Army Black Knights vs. UMBC RetrieversArmy Black Knights won
- Army Black Knights vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 144.5Under won
- Army Black Knights vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 145.5Under won
- Army Black Knights vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 146.5Under won
- Army Black Knights vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 147.5Under won
- Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-7.5)Army Black Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.