Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce34bc1e597e5447e07fd0c55972b3fcda17d49573447421fb76f990326e5e01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 344.56$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.7 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 197.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 161.19$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 34c | 151.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 143.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 17c | 142.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 30c | 125$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 15c | 79.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 79.21$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 19c | 78.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 63.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 75c | 51.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 24c | 48.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 80c | 45.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 28.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 69c | 27.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 72c | 26.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 26.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 25.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 60c | 23.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 21.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xbb25…4e0abacked No | 76c | 18.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked No | 79c | 15.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 93°F or below on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 100-101°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 98-99°F on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.