NFL · resolved market
Will Jayden Daniels score a touchdown?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce58c1ee59dcc75097a9d8f04c3475715eea8f9a78e150da7708eacd3c7e1bdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1159…b3e0backed Yes | 39c | 85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…eb69backed Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464a…359dbacked Yes | 38c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…8031backed Yes | 39c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215e…f3fabacked No | 62c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7436…2b56backed Yes | 38c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…2d9bbacked Yes | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…e76bbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…6183backed No | 62c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…4ee3backed No | 62c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4e…6818backed No | 62c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaab…d892backed No | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42f3…24a0backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…9942backed No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e9…9b74backed No | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa013…994cbacked No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc289…25ebbacked No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba0…fd43backed No | 59c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b2…a28dbacked No | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d7…1e81backed No | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa872…3202backed No | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8f…1be0backed No | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c93…3e14backed No | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d26…f02dbacked No | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c52…6c65backed No | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…2275backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…404cbacked No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1800…b3c2backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…08a2backed No | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07ad…9118backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce7…3bb1backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a5…42ccbacked No | 59c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…4425backed No | 62c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe982…db06backed No | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa734…b971backed No | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…774bbacked No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…04d5backed No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd657…791bbacked No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…a629backed No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6d…2cbcbacked No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…81c3backed No | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…b2fdbacked No | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b15…d01cbacked No | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef4d…ca70backed No | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…715ebacked No | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jayden Daniels score a touchdown?this page
- Will Brian Robinson Jr. score a touchdown?Yes won
- Will Jahmyr Gibbs score a touchdown?Yes won
- Will Terry McLaurin score a touchdown?Yes won
- Will Zach Ertz score a touchdown?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.