NFL · resolved market
Will Terry McLaurin score a touchdown?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8eb67bad0837920d5e302a9d87ad64e46739ab000224843e52070d3b5c0c0796
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 54c | 238.87$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 52c | 199.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed Yes | 48c | 195.55$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.55 | 162 | 59.9%97 W · 65 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 45c | 62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bd…afb8backed Yes | 44c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +139.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61be…e991backed Yes | 42c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f76…7bedbacked No | 58c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d4…de1bbacked Yes | 41c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +141.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…031abacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a5…28d0backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd09c…bf2fbacked No | 58c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8200…f046backed No | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5940…fe8bbacked No | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac2…917ebacked No | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dab…f4f9backed No | 58c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf249…195fbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ee…63f8backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…6855backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3836…3dd2backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed47…dd97backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd327…1dfdbacked No | 58c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd47a…8b38backed No | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…d347backed No | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…8e53backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Terry McLaurin score a touchdown?this page
- Will Brian Robinson Jr. score a touchdown?Yes won
- Will Jahmyr Gibbs score a touchdown?Yes won
- Will Jayden Daniels score a touchdown?No won
- Will Zach Ertz score a touchdown?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.