Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Nuria Brancaccio vs Mary Stoiana
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce84be9acacc41d6240fd660fe863eaafe41cb6c028226610e71e9794d96a0e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Stoianaof Brancaccio, Stoiana
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Brancaccio | 52c | 5,362$2,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,772.66 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Brancaccio | 0c | 3,697$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Stoiana | 53c | 1,818$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.8 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Stoiana | 44c | 1,474$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.75 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Stoiana | 45c | 914.68$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.23 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…7dcebacked Brancaccio | 32c | 837.59$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.51 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -6.2wins | -0.25per pick | 33cpaid | -77%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Stoiana | 49c | 809.33$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.25 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Brancaccio | 41c | 482.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 982 | 40.1%394 W · 588 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Stoiana | 54c | 252.17$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.88 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Stoiana | 38c | 245.54$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.46 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Stoiana | 51c | 218.12$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.12 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Stoiana | 32c | 201.57$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.93 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked Brancaccio | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Brancaccio | 22c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Stoiana | 15c | 67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Stoiana | 40c | 56.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Brancaccio | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Brancaccio | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…e14fbacked Stoiana | 63c | 23.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f8…8b5bbacked Stoiana | 58c | 17.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…196bbacked Stoiana | 72c | 14.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.