TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Fairleigh Dickinson Knights (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Fairleigh Dickinson Knightsof Fairleigh Dickinson Knights, Wagner Seahawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,802
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,778

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,802 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1052…53dabacked Fairleigh Dickinson Knights40c549$219 inWon+$330.212835.7%10 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-28.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Wagner Seahawks56c500$283 inLost-$282.549746.5%231 W · 266 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Wagner Seahawks53c370.44$195 inLost-$195.162,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Fairleigh Dickinson Knights46c342$157 inWon+$184.6875447.1%355 W · 399 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Fairleigh Dickinson Knights52c332.61$174 inWon+$158.3812,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Wagner Seahawks57c310.19$178 inLost-$177.824,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Fairleigh Dickinson Knights50c258$129 inWon+$12989850%449 W · 449 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Wagner Seahawks50c200$100 inLost-$1001,07046.9%502 W · 568 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Wagner Seahawks55c109.55$60 inLost-$60.381,48743%639 W · 848 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea81…eeaebacked Fairleigh Dickinson Knights38c103.78$39 inWon+$64.341,22727.8%341 W · 886 L-0.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Wagner Seahawks54c46$25 inLost-$24.8425436.6%93 W · 161 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9487…54bbbacked Wagner Seahawks50c30$15 inLost-$1536248.6%176 W · 186 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed Wagner Seahawks60c16.78$10 inLost-$10.0712355.3%68 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47ba…a503backed Wagner Seahawks67c14.93$10 inLost-$1011841.5%49 W · 69 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.