South American Leagues · resolved market
CF Monterrey vs. FC Juárez: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce9f16c8774b21e000896ad4bec1073cdef3a19a5307834dee5ad24155217017
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 1,221$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.32 | 8,175 | 48.7%3,980 W · 4,195 L | +27.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 73c | 1,129$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.66 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 63c | 251$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 2,598 | 39.3%1,022 W · 1,576 L | -26.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 68c | 110.11$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 2,365 | 34.5%817 W · 1,548 L | -30.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 20c | 101.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -26.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 19c | 85.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 3,807 | 38.4%1,463 W · 2,344 L | -29.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…bd60backed Under | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 36c | 45.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 250 | 55.2%138 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 30c | 34.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 605 | 56.4%341 W · 264 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…5a03backed Under | 38c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 64c | 19.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 1,484 | 37.3%554 W · 930 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b91…27dcbacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Monterrey vs. FC Juárez: O/U 2.5this page
- CF Monterrey vs. FC Juárez: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CF Monterrey vs. FC Juárez: FC Juárez 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CF Monterrey vs. FC Juárez: FC Juárez O/U 0.5Over won
- CF Monterrey vs. FC Juárez: O/U 0.5Over won
- CF Monterrey vs. FC Juárez: O/U 3.5Over won
- CF Monterrey vs. FC Juárez: O/U 4.5Over won
- CF Monterrey vs. FC Juárez: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: CF Monterrey (-1.5)CF Monterrey won
- Spread: CF Monterrey (-2.5)CF Monterrey won
- Spread: FC Juárez (-2.5)CF Monterrey won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.