South American Leagues · resolved market
CF Monterrey vs. FC Juárez: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd683dee2e56eaeb6fd4d5f8f0cd61343d5fd6d5ea606a6b3e48347c5dfb5ee6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc5b…3ddcbacked Under | 4c | 3,291$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.39 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7acc…c5b9backed Under | 9c | 2,830$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.64 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Under | 6c | 1,980$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.13 | 200 | 36.5%73 W · 127 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 2c | 1,878$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 230 | 44.3%102 W · 128 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 22c | 1,835$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.18 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 4c | 1,476$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 894.73$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.93 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 35c | 806.7$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.04 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 14c | 591.72$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.69 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 14c | 306$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 184 | 26.1%48 W · 136 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 11c | 202.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 12c | 156.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.54 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Under | 21c | 149.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 160 | 51.3%82 W · 78 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 58c | 133.5$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.89 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Over | 79c | 126.29$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 54c | 108$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 46c | 108$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.34 | 145 | 70.3%102 W · 43 L | +22.6wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 76c | 92.65$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.52 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d12…ccc3backed Under | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce41…3f73backed Over | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf39…7032backed Over | 62c | 16.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Monterrey vs. FC Juárez: O/U 5.5this page
- CF Monterrey vs. FC Juárez: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CF Monterrey vs. FC Juárez: FC Juárez 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CF Monterrey vs. FC Juárez: FC Juárez O/U 0.5Over won
- CF Monterrey vs. FC Juárez: O/U 0.5Over won
- CF Monterrey vs. FC Juárez: O/U 2.5Over won
- CF Monterrey vs. FC Juárez: O/U 3.5Over won
- CF Monterrey vs. FC Juárez: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: CF Monterrey (-1.5)CF Monterrey won
- Spread: CF Monterrey (-2.5)CF Monterrey won
- Spread: FC Juárez (-2.5)CF Monterrey won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.