Boxing · resolved market
Will Francis Ngannou win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xceb6cb4208057806efe3ca992f3649f4b9c70f9e4ccd5c18a194f695b37f4da1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Boxingevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Boxing is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Boxing | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c56…fe7fbacked Yes | 26c | 879.7$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 74c | 627.16$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3980…724cbacked Yes | 26c | 388.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 24c | 363.18$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039e…c5e0backed Yes | 26c | 303.7$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x442b…5410backed No | 75c | 250$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…5fccbacked No | 77c | 206.25$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3adb…9d23backed Yes | 26c | 194.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…ea70backed Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…31f2backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Boxing and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Francis Ngannou win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?this page
- Will Anthony Joshua vs. Francis Ngannou have no official winner?No won
- Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Francis Ngannou?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.