Boxing · resolved market
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Francis Ngannou?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c4add08ba30096cfd7226b7e05255efc3e78c595e80b9e6e183525b4d6667fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Boxingevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Boxing is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Boxing | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c99…3477backed Yes | 75c | 3,116$2,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 23c | 2,468$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x846a…44b7backed Yes | 77c | 2,468$1,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x442b…5410backed Yes | 76c | 1,100$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 75c | 266.52$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.63 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 24c | 205$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…f9c3backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e7…8523backed Yes | 76c | 197.58$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8abb…b887backed No | 25c | 175.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddd…a969backed No | 25c | 119.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 23c | 74.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54bc…ee6cbacked No | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…842abacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Boxing and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Francis Ngannou?this page
- Will Anthony Joshua vs. Francis Ngannou have no official winner?No won
- Will Francis Ngannou win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.