NHL · resolved market
Blue Jackets vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xced2a8c07196667fcd425ba0a68dbb07385cd3dc0e560daf5e3cc7abf0ff52e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Over | 57c | 13,208$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 52c | 7,758$4,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,723.87 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 46c | 3,333$1,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,533.18 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 29c | 2,774$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,970.51 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 53c | 2,270$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.69 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 2,130$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.61 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Under | 21c | 1,410$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.9 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 47c | 1,136$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 53c | 792$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.24 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 47c | 700$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 288 | 42%121 W · 167 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Under | 33c | 484$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.28 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 54c | 157$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.22 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 47c | 139.85$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 484 | 52.3%253 W · 231 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 54c | 79.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 45c | 72.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Over | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 55c | 45.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843f…a78bbacked Under | 55c | 36.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3e…eb6cbacked Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blue Jackets vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5this page
- Blue Jackets vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.