NHL · resolved market
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x578a8e86ae88005e933cb6b72212b18f4fb20284f17a22914ca0a35229a58512
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Capitals, Blue Jackets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Capitals | 44c | 4,583$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,582.92 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Blue Jackets | 59c | 1,203$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 269 | 46.1%124 W · 145 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Blue Jackets | 56c | 939$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.44 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Blue Jackets | 56c | 565$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.4 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Blue Jackets | 59c | 508.93$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 396 | 49.5%196 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Blue Jackets | 57c | 482.62$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.77 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Blue Jackets | 56c | 160$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Blue Jackets | 56c | 142$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.52 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…a74dbacked Blue Jackets | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Blue Jackets | 56c | 79.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 222 | 48.2%107 W · 115 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Capitals | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Blue Jackets | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Blue Jackets | 56c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Blue Jackets | 56c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 216 | 48.1%104 W · 112 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Blue Jackets | 56c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Blue Jackets | 56c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Capitals | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Blue Jackets | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Blue Jackets | 58c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Capitals | 80c | 12.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.58 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)this page
- Blue Jackets vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Blue Jackets vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.