Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcedd1d409e562d047a28a454a5a4ebbe85a05d88fe262b2d3e80332f98cb3b09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 10c | 1,931$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.43 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 37c | 981.93$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.44 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 68c | 768.74$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.33 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 634.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 619.35$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 10c | 606.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked No | 30c | 557.93$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…296bbacked Yes | 57c | 500.95$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.27 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 29c | 448.89$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.26 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c26…8ff0backed Yes | 70c | 420.12$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 4c | 397.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.53 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 7c | 333.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…da13backed Yes | 71c | 282.76$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.46 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee6d…5e2cbacked Yes | 8c | 257.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 43c | 248.35$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.98 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a8…50b6backed Yes | 5c | 225.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.37 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed No | 30c | 219.83$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 6c | 198.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.7 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 185.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.54 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab9b…61e2backed Yes | 76c | 161.75$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 159.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 11c | 154.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.29 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…f35abacked Yes | 64c | 151.39$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 24 | 91.7%22 W · 2 L | +5.8wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 149.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.34 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a8…7a97backed Yes | 9c | 145.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.49 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +115%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 62c | 130.7$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.46 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 65c | 109.65$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 63c | 108.16$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 73c | 100.35$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94af…e65fbacked No | 79c | 95.72$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.94 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 80c | 88.19$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 16c | 87.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 51c | 83.83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a8…7e66backed Yes | 65c | 81.19$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe16…d380backed Yes | 61c | 79.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 69c | 76.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…2d98backed Yes | 77c | 75.23$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 31c | 67.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 25c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 27c | 41.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 78c | 41.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bc…7a78backed Yes | 71c | 40.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 40c | 33.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 26.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3947backed Yes | 69c | 22.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…d1f3backed Yes | 76c | 20.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 69c | 19.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 71c | 19.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed Yes | 75c | 19.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…128abacked No | 70c | 18.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 59c | 17.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…cdd8backed Yes | 61c | 17.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0534…5a8dbacked Yes | 71c | 15.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2a…0bf0backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.