Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43d2d52a2ab68ec9c8eebc31d5bd67c5b4e9217c04c87ec4a0a3545b8830d7bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 7c | 493.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 10c | 329.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 14c | 302.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 11c | 260.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 60c | 160.02$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 152.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes | 16c | 149.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 135$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 53c | 122.39$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.32 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 117.49$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked Yes | 35c | 104.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 48c | 103.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes | 15c | 97.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 82.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 14c | 81.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 43c | 78.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd206…f1b3backed Yes | 47c | 75.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 18c | 72.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 33c | 67.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 61c | 62.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 39c | 61.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 48c | 59.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 49c | 57.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 51c | 53.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 65c | 52.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 41c | 48.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…71a0backed Yes | 33c | 48.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc086…6882backed Yes | 22c | 46.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 47c | 43.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 62c | 41.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…0a41backed No | 59c | 40.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 40.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 53c | 36.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 42c | 33.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…cd5dbacked Yes | 49c | 33.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 32.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 38c | 32.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 58c | 31.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 41c | 30.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 44c | 29.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3794…715cbacked No | 71c | 28.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…8384backed Yes | 47c | 28.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…39e5backed Yes | 51c | 25.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 53c | 23.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…296bbacked No | 50c | 23.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 51c | 22.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 66c | 21.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 56c | 19.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 80c | 17.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…128abacked No | 80c | 17.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 66c | 15.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.