Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b41ce71aa094a4623b35546771ed94aacf145ebc7c8347a8d06c93626c440e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…4e57backed No | 76c | 582.71$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.54 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 2c | 499.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 439.42$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 422.8$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 6c | 378.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 19c | 364.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 38c | 323.57$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.54 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 292.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 60c | 267.29$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.2 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 257.34$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.28 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 55c | 231.44$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.97 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 41c | 199.3$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 182.39$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 32c | 157.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 21c | 152.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 38c | 149.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 39c | 127.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 36c | 125.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 25c | 119.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 30c | 116.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 26c | 112.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 15c | 103.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 37c | 100.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94af…e65fbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa9…7a0ebacked No | 66c | 99.97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes | 24c | 92.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 42c | 91.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 26c | 89.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 23c | 87.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2206…0fe2backed Yes | 12c | 84.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 63c | 80.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 30c | 80.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 75.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 21c | 75.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 69c | 71.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed No | 70c | 69.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 42c | 68.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes | 27c | 68.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 28c | 66.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 66.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 65.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 31c | 63.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 30c | 57.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 34c | 56.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 35c | 53.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 44c | 51.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 29c | 51.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 71c | 50.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4dc…338abacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…d079backed Yes | 21c | 48.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 43c | 47.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 37c | 46.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 24c | 46.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 53c | 44.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 71c | 44.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 63c | 44.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed Yes | 49c | 43.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked No | 46c | 43.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 26c | 40.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 40.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes | 36c | 40.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa853…8d7ebacked Yes | 50c | 37.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…db84backed Yes | 29c | 35.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 64c | 34.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 45c | 31.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 79c | 29.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 28.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…8384backed Yes | 39c | 28.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 49c | 27.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfade…540abacked Yes | 38c | 27.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…39e5backed Yes | 40c | 26.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3794…715cbacked No | 76c | 25.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 54c | 24.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…8cbbbacked No | 74c | 20.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 20.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 75c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…128abacked No | 56c | 18.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.