Token Launches · resolved market
OpenGradient FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xceeb2f39cfde8f6a356432824904fccb69f2f923b7e7af1ef97abdfb1c6cf068
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1887…5ae3backed No | 22c | 1,589$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +66%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd10…fc0bbacked Yes | 76c | 1,257$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.95 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…7ca4backed No | 29c | 1,255$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.6 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0474…9ffabacked Yes | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked No | 28c | 783.61$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.26 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4005…4cd5backed No | 27c | 663.61$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.97 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…d696backed Yes | 76c | 511.51$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.02 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed No | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdd…c9a9backed Yes | 72c | 499.99$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked Yes | 68c | 473.76$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.51 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccd…c21dbacked Yes | 75c | 424.06$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…02ddbacked Yes | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcea9…bdc1backed No | 29c | 396.02$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 69c | 337.98$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.39 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd9…0c9abacked Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked No | 26c | 189.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 23c | 109.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x662d…7582backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…d8febacked No | 18c | 80.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +304.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1797…b20cbacked Yes | 75c | 51.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ac…f4ccbacked Yes | 71c | 37.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd072…fd90backed No | 43c | 36.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 71c | 26.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 76c | 20.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 48 | 91.7%44 W · 4 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xba89…d976backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7408…6197backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd585…b1b9backed Yes | 73c | 17.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +456.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed Yes | 80c | 16.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01de…1a82backed Yes | 73c | 15.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- OpenGradient FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- OpenGradient FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- OpenGradient FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- OpenGradient FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- OpenGradient FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- OpenGradient FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.