CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Astralis (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf1da1f4a726c91f2c06b17b139210fba526e5aa55b28fcd7ee080433feb4349
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Astralis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8aa1…99ffbacked Astralis | 21c | 21,366$4,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,385 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Team Falcons | 80c | 18,000$14,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,680 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Astralis | 13c | 2,497$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.54 | 5,810 | 37.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L | +78.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…60e9backed Astralis | 11c | 1,683$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.51 | 550 | 43.1%237 W · 313 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Astralis | 4c | 1,516$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Team Falcons | 78c | 1,376$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.68 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Astralis | 17c | 1,229$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.96 | 216 | 45.4%98 W · 118 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Falcons | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Astralis | 18c | 999.9$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.98 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Team Falcons | 78c | 700$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons | 66c | 619.07$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.51 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff70…2475backed Astralis | 34c | 610.51$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.26 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Team Falcons | 79c | 437.28$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.86 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…1f03backed Astralis | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…0dc4backed Team Falcons | 69c | 271.26$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.94 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Astralis | 35c | 214.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed Team Falcons | 79c | 199.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Team Falcons | 79c | 127.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 166 | 49.4%82 W · 84 L | -15.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…0d18backed Astralis | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…3f0abacked Team Falcons | 80c | 113.65$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed Astralis | 18c | 111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Astralis | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Astralis | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked Team Falcons | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde5a…2875backed Astralis | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38b8…5d35backed Astralis | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 364 | 37.4%136 W · 228 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d2…9fa5backed Team Falcons | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3f…676cbacked Astralis | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…79f9backed Team Falcons | 74c | 31.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -13.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.