Tennis · resolved market
Japan Women's Open: Tereza Valentova vs Leylah Fernandez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf4c05e79f3df88748aceb5c2285e6b3720311fc18da691e75bc9f996a36abc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fernandezof Valentova, Fernandez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Fernandez | 68c | 2,042$1,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.52 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Valentova | 45c | 1,637$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.01 | 192 | 41.1%79 W · 113 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Fernandez | 59c | 889.99$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.52 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Valentova | 24c | 781.09$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.83 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…8d4fbacked Fernandez | 55c | 645.45$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.45 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Valentova | 18c | 643.75$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 191 | 31.4%60 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Fernandez | 71c | 615.99$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.02 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Valentova | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Valentova | 25c | 383.59$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.12 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Fernandez | 55c | 352.26$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.26 | 264 | 62.1%164 W · 100 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Valentova | 33c | 343.68$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.99 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Fernandez | 72c | 319.95$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.66 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Valentova | 8c | 293$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Valentova | 44c | 213.74$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.95 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Valentova | 23c | 209.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…3a1bbacked Fernandez | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2d…82f1backed Valentova | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Fernandez | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Fernandez | 72c | 162.44$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Fernandez | 68c | 154.77$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Valentova | 46c | 121.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…ed2ebacked Valentova | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Valentova | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Valentova | 14c | 78.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Fernandez | 53c | 65.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Fernandez | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Valentova | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f11…bababacked Valentova | 40c | 42.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…e758backed Fernandez | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Fernandez | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Valentova | 47c | 36.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…333bbacked Fernandez | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…8e95backed Valentova | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.