TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: SN (-1.5) vs Winthrop University (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Supernovaof Supernova, Winthrop University
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$670
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$854

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $670 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbed4…f891backed Supernova42c299.78$125 inWon+$174.3251247.3%242 W · 270 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Winthrop University58c200$116 inLost-$1161,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa4e…5973backed Supernova44c152.81$68 inWon+$85.1455744%245 W · 312 L-17.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Winthrop University58c110.62$65 inLost-$64.6260849.5%301 W · 307 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Winthrop University57c50$29 inLost-$28.531650.3%159 W · 157 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ed…b497backed Winthrop University58c32.98$19 inLost-$19.1339056.4%220 W · 170 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed Winthrop University52c31$16 inLost-$16.129643.8%42 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed Winthrop University58c24.32$14 inLost-$14.111,38545.1%625 W · 760 L-12.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.