Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf7649bdfaf500302731074aa7703406320c201b06a33cc3a513b30693c92708
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 79c | 482.64$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.09 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 449$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 27c | 371.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.48 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 279.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 35c | 240.22$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.35 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 22c | 205.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.52 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 200.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 25c | 182.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 159.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.83 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 76c | 118.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 28c | 116.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.77 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 15c | 113.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.65 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 59c | 107.71$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.06 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 20c | 100.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.34 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 79c | 94.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 19c | 87.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.82 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 21c | 84.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.83 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 84.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…60f7backed Yes | 19c | 83.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 81.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 21c | 71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48dc…c7d5backed Yes | 25c | 70.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +43%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 15c | 70.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbeb…32b5backed Yes | 23c | 58.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 55.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 67c | 54.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 36c | 49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 77c | 44.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 78c | 25.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 25.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…cc98backed No | 80c | 24.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 71c | 21.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 76c | 21.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 50c | 20.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed No | 79c | 12.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 10°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 11°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 12°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.