Tennis · resolved market
ITF M15 Krakow Men: Lorenzo Berto vs Jan Wygona
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfa1bedf533a05ca644bbf59e25da759161b5b9f001da4dd8e5b33307ed9e7b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lorenzo Bertoof Lorenzo Berto, Jan Wygona
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Jan Wygona | 42c | 473.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.49 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Lorenzo Berto | 54c | 444.98$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.69 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Jan Wygona | 46c | 374.27$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.16 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Lorenzo Berto | 57c | 288.32$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.39 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…9f92backed Jan Wygona | 43c | 192$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.91 | 253 | 49%124 W · 129 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lorenzo Berto | 54c | 189.98$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.39 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Jan Wygona | 46c | 189.98$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.39 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Lorenzo Berto | 51c | 75.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Lorenzo Berto | 57c | 70.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 489 | 47.4%232 W · 257 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Lorenzo Berto | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Lorenzo Berto | 59c | 49.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 690 | 47%324 W · 366 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Lorenzo Berto | 56c | 47.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 695 | 45.8%318 W · 377 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Lorenzo Berto | 59c | 45.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…2e6abacked Jan Wygona | 43c | 35.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 299 | 45.8%137 W · 162 L | +20.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77e6…0ae1backed Lorenzo Berto | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 158 | 64.6%102 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lorenzo Berto | 78c | 33.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Lorenzo Berto | 67c | 23.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 648 | 37.5%243 W · 405 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.