Mls · resolved market
Will Orlando City SC win on 2025-10-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfafd546235f5bb14c5b6cef6f5508e02e822ece3fd1d8cba3ca178a2d5693eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 50c | 25,000$12,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,500 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Yes | 50c | 23,798$11,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,898.87 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 52c | 2,761$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440.79 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 58c | 2,591$1,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.09 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 50c | 932$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 48c | 890.81$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.38 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed No | 47c | 787.63$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 35c | 750$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.5 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 36c | 698$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.28 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 48c | 399.99$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.99 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 46c | 388.18$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.8 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Yes | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 55c | 375.44$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.29 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 48c | 282.74$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.14 | 132 | 57.6%76 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6a…9717backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 55c | 162.5$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.67 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 47c | 140$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Yes | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c6…f769backed Yes | 52c | 96.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be7…8d02backed Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Yes | 48c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b0…94ebbacked Yes | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 48c | 41.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 165 | 31.5%52 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 46c | 41.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 160 | 61.3%98 W · 62 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Orlando City SC win on 2025-10-04?this page
- Will Columbus Crew win on 2025-10-04?No won
- Will Orlando City SC vs. Columbus Crew end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.