NHL · resolved market
Spread: Blackhawks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd02fb8e9b9c01fce056a4b81d516d593207c7cca3a0caafda1f7a67b04765e21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flamesof Blackhawks, Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7192…b081backed Blackhawks | 29c | 1,040$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x621a…c514backed Flames | 71c | 480$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ef…4fb6backed Flames | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…fcd9backed Flames | 71c | 260$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Flames | 71c | 203.38$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Blackhawks | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Blackhawks | 29c | 189.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Flames | 68c | 166.13$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Flames | 68c | 155.1$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd098…8c03backed Flames | 70c | 147.73$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Blackhawks | 30c | 113.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Blackhawks | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Blackhawks | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Flames | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Flames | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Blackhawks | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Blackhawks | 30c | 38.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Blackhawks | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac2…8384backed Flames | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Flames | 71c | 15.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Blackhawks (-1.5)this page
- Flames vs. BlackhawksFlames won
- Flames vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flames vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Flames (-1.5)Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.