NHL · resolved market
Flames vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x358d7a028ce5a64feca7cdb99e6f16af328b26a51b0b0d74c13964ebd8772c18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 55c | 4,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 45c | 3,052$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,678.71 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 45c | 2,648$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,458.69 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 56c | 1,225$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Over | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 428 | 47.2%202 W · 226 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 57c | 500.68$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.39 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 44c | 444$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.64 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 56c | 360.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 45c | 357.78$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.78 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 44c | 327$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.12 | 363 | 49%178 W · 185 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 55c | 319.28$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.92 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 44c | 204.55$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.55 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 44c | 164.65$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.2 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 119.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07bd…5d79backed Over | 50c | 115$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6460…84efbacked Under | 45c | 94.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Under | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 46c | 58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Under | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed Under | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 44c | 44.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 54 | 72.2%39 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 45c | 37.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 55c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 129 | 43.4%56 W · 73 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 46c | 30.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…7077backed Over | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flames vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5this page
- Flames vs. BlackhawksFlames won
- Flames vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Blackhawks (-1.5)Flames won
- Spread: Flames (-1.5)Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.