TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Flames vs. Blackhawks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Flamesof Flames, Blackhawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$686,348
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$698,410

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $686,348 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 529 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6b4…a278backed Flames48c209,186$99,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109,681.7210349.5%51 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Blackhawks53c116,095$61,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,085.011,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Blackhawks53c75,000$39,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,7507946.8%37 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf90e…0b56backed Blackhawks52c50,104$26,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,053.9113449.3%66 W · 68 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Blackhawks52c43,890$22,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,822.848549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Blackhawks52c43,391$22,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,497.361,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Flames47c40,782$19,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,614.2556152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Flames48c33,293$15,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,312.3679350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Flames49c27,645$13,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,199.0316656.6%94 W · 72 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xebbb…4214backed Blackhawks27c22,250$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00012835.9%46 W · 82 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Flames47c22,050$10,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,686.513553.3%72 W · 63 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Flames47c20,000$9,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,684.4832946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7a5…7c26backed Flames47c18,800$8,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,9644365.1%28 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Flames47c17,790$8,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,433.511,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Flames73c12,961$9,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,499.431,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Blackhawks52c10,774$5,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,644.211,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdacd…a083backed Blackhawks52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,199.9820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0dc7…a83cbacked Flames47c9,991$4,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,295.39366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Blackhawks53c8,785$4,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,663.9514753.7%79 W · 68 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Blackhawks53c8,500$4,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,50515749.7%78 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Blackhawks52c7,777$4,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,044.0413363.2%84 W · 49 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4e6…4a4dbacked Flames47c7,413$3,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,928.773050%15 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Flames47c7,120$3,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,773.784957.1%28 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Blackhawks53c7,000$3,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,71061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Flames47c6,499$3,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,444.371,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…5950backed Blackhawks54c5,365$2,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,878.326157.4%35 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Blackhawks38c5,242$1,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,974.51,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccdb…ffa9backed Flames47c5,047$2,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,675.062846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Flames48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,60056649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked Blackhawks53c5,000$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,65011749.6%58 W · 59 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49d1…2a44backed Blackhawks52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6005152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked Blackhawks54c5,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,700333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Flames46c5,000$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,699.7413948.2%67 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Flames48c4,766$2,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,478.3261953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Blackhawks26c4,493$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.589636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Flames48c4,069$1,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,115.931,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f9…bb8fbacked Flames75c4,050$3,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.56456.3%36 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Flames53c3,473$1,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,647.71,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Blackhawks32c3,332$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,075.0757157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcca5…6d0cbacked Flames47c3,136$1,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,661.96650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Flames55c3,068$1,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,377.642,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Blackhawks51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53029651.7%153 W · 143 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Blackhawks53c3,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5908845.5%40 W · 48 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Blackhawks34c2,869$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.3838738%147 W · 240 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Blackhawks53c2,830$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50031550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Blackhawks51c2,817$1,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,436.6547951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Flames47c2,753$1,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.9962249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200c…58eabacked Flames47c2,598$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,377.143764.9%24 W · 13 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+22.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Blackhawks53c2,500$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.994837.5%18 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Blackhawks7c2,337$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.062,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Flames47c2,319$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,229.328251.8%146 W · 136 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Flames49c2,274$1,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.483652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Blackhawks52c2,200$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.071,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Flames47c2,167$1,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.521,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Blackhawks41c2,134$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.1314140.4%57 W · 84 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Blackhawks1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f9…86ecbacked Blackhawks53c2,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06011253.6%60 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Blackhawks16c1,910$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.232,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Blackhawks53c1,900$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00722946.3%106 W · 123 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71a5…c3eabacked Blackhawks53c1,887$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001520%3 W · 12 L-4.3wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-64.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Flames47c1,868$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.481,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Flames47c1,800$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95438046.6%177 W · 203 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Blackhawks52c1,615$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.8389249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82d1…663fbacked Blackhawks53c1,529$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.72259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Blackhawks30c1,512$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.7434538.6%133 W · 212 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Flames48c1,500$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.491,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07bc…393abacked Blackhawks53c1,412$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.23043.3%13 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x07c8…2696backed Blackhawks36c1,395$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.767844.9%35 W · 43 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Flames72c1,387$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.8699638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Blackhawks35c1,377$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.0343742.3%185 W · 252 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Flames48c1,353$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.7933243.7%145 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4d0…0669backed Blackhawks53c1,332$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08cf…f0ccbacked Blackhawks53c1,328$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.451540%6 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4a6…6d23backed Flames48c1,307$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.5528853.1%153 W · 135 L+14.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Blackhawks53c1,300$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.543548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Blackhawks53c1,296$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.1321036.2%76 W · 134 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Flames48c1,250$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65038445.8%176 W · 208 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Flames53c1,177$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.2533345.6%152 W · 181 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe008…8ff5backed Blackhawks53c1,154$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.254557.8%26 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Blackhawks54c1,142$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.4917057.1%97 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Blackhawks54c1,133$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6122142.9%9 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Blackhawks1c1,111$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.117450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Blackhawks52c1,100$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.0445749.2%225 W · 232 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf74a…a91cbacked Blackhawks54c1,080$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58310251%52 W · 50 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Blackhawks63c1,051$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.5785464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Blackhawks52c1,038$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.7684953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Flames63c1,034$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.071,35452.6%712 W · 642 L+46.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x765c…0779backed Blackhawks52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.0740049.3%197 W · 203 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Blackhawks53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53019645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Blackhawks53c943.4$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50029551.9%153 W · 142 L-1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Flames47c933.15$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.5745955.1%253 W · 206 L+1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa774…005fbacked Blackhawks53c900$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47714245.1%64 W · 78 L-12.5wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-16.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6203…6280backed Flames47c851.87$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.493240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8479…37f8backed Blackhawks24c833$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.94831.3%15 W · 33 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Blackhawks2c820$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.852504.8%12 W · 238 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+159.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Flames57c816$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.8852172.6%378 W · 143 L+36.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xeea6…135fbacked Blackhawks46c800.93$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37120150.2%101 W · 100 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Blackhawks53c800$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42431848.1%153 W · 165 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Flames48c800$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.081,53051.7%791 W · 739 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Flames47c767.33$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.682,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.