Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd03fb555bb7bf0529f71d0b34f90dae7d25b3ea06e26b991fa24ba4d1419e421
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 8c | 225$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 220$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 7c | 187$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 77c | 147.02$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 108.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 102.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 94.25$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked No | 51c | 86.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 46c | 85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 38c | 78.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 23c | 78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 75.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 80c | 64.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 32c | 62.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 36c | 56.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 27c | 44.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 44c | 41.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 31c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 53c | 40.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 75c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 42c | 34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…1840backed Yes | 63c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…5a65backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 71c | 25.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 24.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 66c | 23.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed No | 45c | 23.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 65c | 18.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 67c | 15.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.