La Liga · resolved market
Will Villarreal vs. Rayo Vallecano end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0484014d434e3960d7b908afb5994db5eb488650640a28ef132a7b2b689dc5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 26c | 1,359$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.24 | 502 | 43.4%218 W · 284 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 26c | 1,341$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.66 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdea6…a170backed Yes | 22c | 1,207$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 78c | 1,071$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.34 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 905$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.41 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039e…7183backed No | 76c | 849.03$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792c…40f8backed No | 76c | 778.95$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 78c | 686.85$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.11 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 24c | 658.92$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.15 | 157 | 50.3%79 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 74c | 605.32$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.38 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…44a2backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 75c | 365.05$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.26 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5d…f4e1backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…1b85backed Yes | 25c | 96.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1892…b299backed Yes | 26c | 92.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff2…47e6backed No | 77c | 87.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 76c | 84.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 744 | 57.5%428 W · 316 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 74c | 76.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 295 | 45.4%134 W · 161 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca9a…dc46backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0aa…9d12backed No | 76c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde4d…bc25backed No | 76c | 69.74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed No | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 145 | 74.5%108 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1cd…d76cbacked No | 76c | 55.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…795bbacked Yes | 21c | 47.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e4…2d33backed No | 76c | 44.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab5…fa69backed No | 76c | 38.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f1…5fcbbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Villarreal vs. Rayo Vallecano end in a draw?this page
- Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-11-01?No won
- Will Villarreal win on 2025-11-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.