TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will "The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,283
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,344

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,283 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c4,031$14 inLost-$14.294629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4fe…b350backed Yes10c1,500$150 inLost-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes4c305.78$12 inLost-$11.961822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-43%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd242…e84dbacked No74c244.86$181 inWon+$64.26450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec0c…8589backed No74c169.71$126 inWon+$44.12666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e5e…bf98backed Yes24c123.49$30 inLost-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5aa…c200backed Yes15c120$18 inLost-$18.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick23cpaid+155.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec3a…a709backed Yes13c95.75$12 inLost-$12.341442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes12c94.75$12 inLost-$11.8439116.1%63 W · 328 L-44.4wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.