Music · resolved market
Will "Man I Need - Olivia Dean" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4decc0f3abff3290ef0ee56e8f244b8cac36269737505903d0ea30019bd7bf39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 7,651$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…9412backed Yes | 31c | 566.98$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.25 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 59c | 235$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x585d…ff6dbacked Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 47c | 159.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked No | 60c | 125.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…9adabacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 34c | 96.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed Yes | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b6…4a66backed No | 56c | 34.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Man I Need - Olivia Dean" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?this page
- Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?Yes won
- Will "Golden - HUNTR/X" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will "The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will "WHERE IS MY HUSBAND! - RAYE" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.