Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Celtic vs. SC Braga end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0a279e2d203f498451c789eb76067adb9591f852232aed5e1bdaca8c367ea86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Yes | 26c | 2,050$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 74c | 2,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 76c | 970.97$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.47 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 24c | 678$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.12 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 499.5$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.3 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 71c | 376.26$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.85 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 79c | 206.58$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4944…e4c7backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -5.2wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Yes | 25c | 189.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 75c | 147.92$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Yes | 24c | 133.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb091…2017backed No | 76c | 131.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 74c | 114.46$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0909…91cabacked Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…1914backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…28d7backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 74c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…0055backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 74c | 44.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 122 | 69.7%85 W · 37 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 69c | 41.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe5…ac12backed No | 77c | 27.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 237 | 57%135 W · 102 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Celtic vs. SC Braga end in a draw?this page
- Will Celtic win on 2025-10-02?No won
- Will SC Braga win on 2025-10-02?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.