Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. California-San Diego Tritons
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0d06f6157b4f8d614278fa1829c20028f95501a6d43536783a242cd78d12e89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- California-San Diego Tritonsof Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, California-San Diego Tritons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 41c | 1,417$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.73 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked California-San Diego Tritons | 59c | 808.79$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.07 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked California-San Diego Tritons | 58c | 781.42$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.03 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 44c | 688.03$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.57 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked California-San Diego Tritons | 56c | 599.99$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked California-San Diego Tritons | 68c | 533.52$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.6 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 38c | 400.04$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.92 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed California-San Diego Tritons | 59c | 399$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.81 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f49…1befbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 5c | 390.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked California-San Diego Tritons | 55c | 319.64$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 352 | 43.2%152 W · 200 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed California-San Diego Tritons | 63c | 290$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.9 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9764…c40cbacked California-San Diego Tritons | 59c | 279.32$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.32 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 45c | 220.67$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 126 | 42.1%53 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 21c | 212.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ae…f107backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 37c | 180$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 423 | 27.2%115 W · 308 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed California-San Diego Tritons | 75c | 160$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 42c | 152.1$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc76a…700bbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 42c | 117.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 536 | 46.5%249 W · 287 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6038…2130backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 38c | 45.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 117 | 43.6%51 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed California-San Diego Tritons | 73c | 39.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed California-San Diego Tritons | 57c | 39.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf702…7cc8backed California-San Diego Tritons | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 175 | 44%77 W · 98 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.