Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2025-12-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0ea6b266e9e9c529f503e2831ecd90a1330d1c213db53fda3c64802f26b417a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 29c | 3,000$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.98 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5520…32ffbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 78c | 1,390$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.67 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 48c | 814.53$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.32 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbee9…269dbacked Yes | 61c | 805.39$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 57c | 591.13$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.56 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c9…0dfebacked Yes | 77c | 440$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5204…1ca0backed Yes | 57c | 421.05$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 31c | 315.44$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.73 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b43…8ebdbacked Yes | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 34c | 285$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 66c | 262.18$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.81 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked No | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd549…296dbacked No | 39c | 215.38$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.38 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 47c | 186.17$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.83 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x634f…8295backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…5204backed Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 71c | 149.8$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…a7edbacked Yes | 29c | 144.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Yes | 28c | 142.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed No | 72c | 138.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed No | 32c | 123.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 55c | 115.25$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Yes | 69c | 112.69$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde22…292abacked Yes | 50c | 97.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…e25dbacked No | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 71c | 89.35$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed No | 64c | 88.33$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked No | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 74c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…28fabacked Yes | 59c | 49.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked No | 71c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 48c | 31.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…ec1ebacked Yes | 53c | 30.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e5…c3d4backed Yes | 61c | 26.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…4756backed No | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…f7dcbacked Yes | 69c | 24.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a6…7ed2backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…6dd4backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb4…1233backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…bbb2backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…d6cbbacked No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2025-12-19?this page
- Will SC Paderborn 07 vs. SV Darmstadt 98 end in a draw?Yes won
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2025-12-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.