Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2025-12-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80755e028e11274d9787fac056a2aac9f4c8ac3cdea9eafc4bd4646359fcb8e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 46c | 25,000$11,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,499.99 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed No | 54c | 24,880$13,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,444.93 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 58c | 5,194$3,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,164.88 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…6f34backed Yes | 48c | 2,165$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Yes | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.99 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f99cbacked Yes | 47c | 999.99$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.99 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 44c | 969.99$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.49 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…dd26backed Yes | 47c | 910$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.7 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 62c | 714.44$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.79 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 53c | 700$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 20c | 629.24$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.86 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…5e8bbacked No | 53c | 570$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.9 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…c4acbacked Yes | 47c | 568.09$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed No | 75c | 510.67$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 55c | 450$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8da…cad3backed No | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +5.8wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes | 7c | 352.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52d3…4c58backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 64c | 257.7$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.89 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb4…9854backed Yes | 15c | 246.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 45c | 220.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 46c | 206.52$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 10c | 206.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…6beabacked Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 55c | 195$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.31 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…acacbacked No | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 68cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x634f…8295backed Yes | 23c | 172$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…a7edbacked Yes | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde77…8cd3backed Yes | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 14c | 112.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Yes | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a74…c3e4backed Yes | 47c | 106.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 33c | 98.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…ec1ebacked Yes | 24c | 65.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 67c | 63.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Yes | 44c | 49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 54c | 48.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16f1…139ebacked No | 56c | 48.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +88%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…8198backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Yes | 25c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 57cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b9…b138backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 55c | 37.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…14bfbacked No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +244.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed No | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 73c | 17.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2025-12-19?this page
- Will SC Paderborn 07 vs. SV Darmstadt 98 end in a draw?Yes won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2025-12-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.