Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs. SV Darmstadt 98 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x541869276708cde2bad634aa64c95c7eb8f86fea5fd4cb510819cdd2bd0242ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 33c | 1,109$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.1 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c9…0dfebacked Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 30c | 441.49$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.01 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked Yes | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.43 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e88…f3c9backed Yes | 68c | 281.16$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 74c | 273$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.02 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…9325backed Yes | 79c | 252.04$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 16c | 221.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 17c | 198.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 26c | 172.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.32 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd43f…0bb0backed Yes | 27c | 136.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 26c | 107$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.18 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 45c | 106.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe666…14f5backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6489…71ebbacked No | 35c | 84.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…27e7backed Yes | 25c | 83.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +168.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…d776backed Yes | 25c | 69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 79c | 68.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 21c | 63.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d33…3701backed Yes | 68c | 59.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 36c | 58.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 28c | 57.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 26c | 46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…a0d2backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 73c | 40.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 73c | 37.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859b…297ebacked No | 76c | 33.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed06…f663backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…8277backed Yes | 76c | 26.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Yes | 68c | 16.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Paderborn 07 vs. SV Darmstadt 98 end in a draw?this page
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2025-12-19?No won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2025-12-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.